Magaziniyi ikuwona.
Nthawi: 2021-8-1-2021-8-31
Mawu osakira: zoletsa kupanga kuti zichepetse dziwe la zopangira
Bukuli likuwongolera.
● Kuwunikanso pamsika: mitengo idakwera kwambiri chifukwa chakulimbikitsidwa kuchokera pazoletsa kupanga.
● Kusanthula zakampani: Zogulitsa zikupitilizabe kugulitsa, ndipo mindandanda isinthira kuchoka pakukwera mpaka kugwa.
● Kufufuza kofufuza: kutentha kwambiri ndi mvula, magwiridwe antchito amafunikira.
● Kusanthula mtengo: zopangira zidagwa pang'ono, mtengo wotsika udafooka.
Kusanthula kwama Macro: mfundo zokhazikika pakukula sizikusintha ndipo makampani akukula bwino.
Kuwona kwathunthu: M'mwezi wa Julayi, wolimbikitsidwa ndi kukonzanso kwa dziko lonse ndi nkhani zoletsa kupanga, mitengo yazitsulo yakunyumba idayambanso. Munthawiyo, nkhani zazikuluzikulu zimatuluka pafupipafupi, kukhazikitsa kwathunthu kutsitsa; malingaliro olosera adayakanso, msika wamtsogolo udakwera kwambiri; Poyembekezera kuchepa kwa kupanga, mphero zachitsulo nthawi zambiri zimakweza mtengo wakale wa fakitole. Mitengo yazitsulo idakwera munthawi yopanda nyengo, yokwera kuposa momwe amayembekezerera, makamaka chifukwa cha mfundo zakuchepa kwazitsulo zosakongola m'malo ambiri wina ndi mzake, mabizinesi ena achitsulo adayamba kuchepetsa kupanga, ndikupanikizika kuti achepetse pambuyo pamisika yayikulu kukankhira yoweyula. Komabe, mitengo ikapitilira kukwera, kufunikira kolimba kwa ntchito kumakhala kofooka, kutentha ndi nyengo yamvula, ntchito zomangamanga zalephereka, chiwongola dzanja chatsika kwambiri poyerekeza ndi mwezi watha. Kugulitsa ndi kufunikira kumafooka panjira zonse ziwirizi, ndipo kuweruza kwathu mwezi watha kuli chimodzimodzi, koma mgwirizano wamagetsi unakulitsidwa kwambiri ndi msika wamsika, kukulitsa mavuto pamsika. Ponseponse, mu Julayi, kukwezaku kumayembekezeredwa, ndipo udindo wazachuma udawonetsedwa bwino. Pambuyo polowa mu Ogasiti, njira yazopezera njira ziwiri ndikufunira zosintha zisintha: mbali yogulitsa, chifukwa chantchito yolemetsa yopanga, madera ena apitiliza kukulitsa kuchuluka kwa zoletsa pakupanga, kupanga kumakhala kovuta kubweza; kumbali yakufunira, mpumulo wa nyengo yoipitsitsa, zomwe zikuchedwetsedwa zikuyembekezeredwa kuchira. Chifukwa chake, tikulosera kuti mu Ogasiti zomangamanga ndizopangira zida zakapangidwe zidzakonzedweratu, mitengo yazitsulo ndi malo osakwanira. Komabe, pakuwonjezereka kwa zoletsa kupanga, miyala yachitsulo yaposachedwa, zidutswa ndi zina mitengo yazida zagwera pamlingo winawake, mphero zachitsulo mtengo wa mphamvu yokoka ukuyembekezeka kutsika, kukulitsa phindu pambuyo mphamvu zoletsa kupanga kapena zofooketsa (ng'anjo yamagetsi yamagetsi siyimayikidwa pakapangidwe kazoyang'anira). Kuphatikiza apo, kusintha kwa mfundo zina pamisonkho kumachepetsa kuchuluka kwa zogulitsa zakunja ku China, kuchuluka kwa malamulo ogulitsa nyumba, kumakhudza kuthamanga kwa kutsika kwa zotuluka. -Iziyembekezeredwa kuti mtengo wamakokedwe apamwamba kwambiri ku Shanghai mu Ogasiti (kutengera index ya Xiben) azikhala muma Yuan / ton okwana 5,500-5,800.
Unikani: Mitengo yazitsulo idakwera kwambiri mu Julayi
I. Kuwunika pamsika
Mu Julayi 2021, mitengo yazitsulo yakunyumba idakwera kwambiri, kuyambira pa Julayi 30, Westbourne Steel Index idatseka pa 5570, mpaka 480 kuyambira kumapeto kwa mwezi watha.
Review wa July, ngakhale kufunika chikhalidwe yopanda-nyengo, koma zoweta zomangamanga zitsulo msika potsimikizira-azimuth apamwamba, chifukwa, makamaka chifukwa mfundo mfundo kukhala lotayirira, msika akuyembekezeka kukhala wabwino. Makamaka, theka loyambirira la chaka, potulutsa zoletsa pakupanga ndi malingaliro amsika chifukwa cha kusinthaku, mitengo yazitsulo yazomangamanga ndiyokwera kwambiri; pakati, mphero zachitsulo nthawi zambiri zimakankhira mtengo wakale wa fakitole, msika wozungulira mapangidwe olumikizana, mitengo imakulanso kuti iwonjezeke; mochedwa, kutentha kwambiri kuzungulira mvula ndi madera ena chifukwa cha nyengo yamkuntho, ntchito yomanga yatsekedwa, kutulutsidwa kwa ma terminal sikokwanira, kuwonjezeka kwamitengo kwachepa. Ponseponse, chifukwa mbali yochepetsako ikuyembekezeka kupitilirabe, msika wamakampani umalimbikitsa kwambiri mtengo, womwe pamapeto pake udapangitsa kuti mitengo yazitsulo yomanga mu Julayi ipitirire ziyembekezo.
Mitengo yazitsulo zapanyumba mu Julayi pambuyo pokwera kwambiri, Ogasiti agulitsa ngati izi zikuchitika? Kodi ndi kusintha kotani komwe kudzachitike pazinthu zamakampani? Ndi mafunso ambiri, limodzi ndi lipoti lowunika lazitsulo zakumanga kwa Ogasiti.
Ⅱ, kusanthula kwazinthu
1, zowunikira zazitsulo zazitsulo zapakhomo pazomwe zikuchitika pano
Kuyambira pa Julayi 30, kuchuluka kwa mitundu yayikulu yazitsulo zapakhomo kunali matani 15,481,400, matani 794,000 kapena 5.4% kuyambira kumapeto kwa Juni, kutsika matani 247,500 kapena 1.6% kuyambira nthawi yomweyi chaka chatha. Mwa iwo, mndandanda wa ulusi, ndodo ya waya, zokutira zotentha, mbale zoziziritsa kuzizira komanso mbale zapakatikati zinali matani 8,355,700, matani 1,651,100, matani 2,996,800, matani 1,119,800 ndi matani 1,286,000 motsatana. Kuphatikiza pa kuchepa pang'ono kwa masheya ozizira, zosanjikiza zamitundu ina isanu yayikulu yazitsulo zidakwera pamlingo winawake, koma osati kwakukulu.
Malinga ndi kafukufukuyu, mu Julayi, msika wazitsulo wazinyumba umafuna kutsika kawiri. Mbali yakufunira: yomwe yakhudzidwa ndi zomwe sizinachitike munyengo, magwiridwe antchito amafikira ndi aulesi, kuzungulira kuchuluka kwa zochitika kudagwa kwambiri poyerekeza ndi Juni, koma kufunikira kwa msika ndikwabwino. Mbali yothandizira: Pambuyo pa mfundo zakuponderezedwa kwazitsulo zopanda pake m'maiko ena ndi mizinda, zochepetsera zikuyembekezeka kukhala zolimba. Poganizira zoletsa zakapangidwe kazakulitsidwanso pambuyo polowa mu Ogasiti, pomwe magwiridwe antchito akuyembekezeka kusintha, momwe chiwerengerocho chikuyembekezeredwa kugayidwa.
2, zowunikira zazitsulo zakunyumba
Malinga ndi zomwe zaposachedwa kwambiri kuchokera ku China Steel Association, mkatikati mwa Julayi 2021, mabizinesi achitsulo owerengeka adatulutsa matani 21,936,900 achitsulo chosakongola, matani 19,089,000 achitsulo cha nkhumba, matani 212,681,000 achitsulo. Kupanga kwapakati pa tsiku pazaka khumi izi, zitsulo zosakongola matani 2,193,700, kuwonjezeka kwa 2.62% ringgit ndi 2.59% pachaka; chitsulo cha nkhumba matani 1,908,900, kuwonjezeka kwa 2.63% ringgit ndi kutsika kwa 0.01% pachaka; zitsulo 2,126,800 matani, kuwonjezeka kwa 8.35% ringgit ndi 4.29% pachaka.
3, zowerengera zitsulo zoweta ndi kuwunika kunja
Malinga ndi zomwe General Administration of Customs yawonetsa kuti mu Juni 2021, China idatumiza kunja matani 6.458 miliyoni achitsulo, kuchuluka kwa matani 1.1870 miliyoni, kapena 22.52%; Kukula kwa chaka ndi chaka kwa 74.5%; Januware-Juni China imagulitsa kunja matani mamiliyoni 37.382, chiwonjezeko cha 30.2%. June China zogulitsa kunja kwa chitsulo matani miliyoni 1.252, kutsika ndi 33.4%; Januware-Juni China zogulitsa kunja kuyambira Januware mpaka Juni, China idatumiza matani okwana 7.349 miliyoni achitsulo, mpaka 0.1% pachaka.
4, kupezeka kwazitsulo zomanga mwezi wamawa
Mu Julayi, mothandizidwa ndi mfundo zakuchepetsa kuchepa kwa zokolola, malo ambiri aperekedwa kuti achepetse ntchitoyi, mavuto ena operekera zigawo adabwerera m'mbuyo kwambiri. Komabe, mitengo yazitsulo ikakulirakulira, phindu lazitsulo lidakonzedwa, kuthamanga kwazinthu zocheperako sikukuyenda bwino. Poganizira kuti kulowa mu Ogasiti, zoletsa zoyendetsera ntchito zikuwonjezekera, koma kudula pamsika kumafooka, tikuyembekeza kuti zida zomangira mu Ogasiti sizikhala zochepa.
Komanso, kufunika kwa zinthu
1, Shanghai yomanga zogulitsa zitsulo pakuwunika
Mu Julayi, zofunsira zakunyumba zidabwerera mchaka chatha. Pakatikati mwa mwezi, chifukwa cha nyengo yotentha kwambiri, kutulutsa kofunikirako kunali kofooka; mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, East China idakumana ndi mphepo yamkuntho, malo ena osungiramo katundu adatsekedwa, ndipo kugulitsa msika kudasokonekera. Ponseponse, zotsatira zakunyengo ndizofunikira kwambiri, chiwongola dzanja chidagwa kwambiri kuchokera mphete. Komabe, atalowa mu Ogasiti, mbali yofunikirayo ikuyembekezeka kutenga pang'ono: mbali imodzi, mbali yothandizira ndalama ndiyosavuta, ndipo zomwe zidatsalira munthawi yapitayi zikuyembekezeka kutulutsidwa; Komano, nyengo yotentha kwambiri imachepa, ndipo kugwiritsiridwa ntchito kwamtsinje kumayembekezereka kukula. Chifukwa chake, msika uli ndi ziyembekezo zina zakufuna mu Ogasiti.
IV. Kusanthula mtengo
1, kusanthula kwa zinthu zopangira
Mu Julayi, mitengo yazopangira idagwera pang'ono. Malinga ndi kafukufuku yemwe Xiben New Trunk Line adachita, kuyambira pa Julayi 30, mtengo wakale wa fakitole wamba wa carbon billet mdera la Tangshan unali 5270 yuan / ton, upita ku 360 yuan / ton poyerekeza ndi mtengo kumapeto kwa mwezi watha; mtengo wa zidutswa m'dera la Jiangsu unali 3720 yuan / ton, mpaka 80 yuan / ton poyerekeza ndi kutha kwa mwezi watha; mtengo wa coke wachiwiri kudera la Shanxi unali 2440 yuan / ton, kutsika mpaka 120 yuan / ton poyerekeza ndi mtengo kumapeto kwa mwezi watha; mtengo wa 65-66 kukoma kwa miyala yachitsulo mdera la Tangshan inali yuan 1600 / ton. Mtengo wokhazikika pamiyala yachitsulo m'dera la Tangshan unali RMB1,600 / tani, mpaka RMB50 / tani poyerekeza ndi kutha kwa mwezi watha; Platts 62% chitsulo chachitsulo chinali USD195 / ton, kutsika USD23.4 / tani poyerekeza ndi kutha kwa mwezi watha.
Mwezi uno, kuchepa kwa miyala yochokera kunja kukuwonekeratu, malire azopangira zitsulo akonzedwa.
2, mtengo wachitsulo chomanga mwezi wamawa ukuyembekezeka
Zambiri zomwe zilipo pakadali pano ndikuyembekezera, tikuyembekeza: miyala yachitsulo idzagwerabe mtsogolo; coke supply ndi yolimba, mtengo udakwera pang'ono; chitsulo chazitsulo pazoletsa kupanga, zoletsa zamagetsi, mitengo kapena kusinthanso kwambiri. Kuwona kwathunthu, mitengo yazitsulo yomanga ikuyembekezeka kutsika pang'ono mu Ogasiti.
Zambiri za V. Macro
1, njira yapakatikati komanso yapaderadera "14 zisanu" njira yochepetsera kaboni yamafuta ndiwonekeratu
Potengera kuchuluka kwa kaboni, kusalowerera ndale, kuyambira kuutumiki kupita kuderalo, ikuthandizira kusintha kwamafuta obiriwira. Mtolankhani adamva kuti "Dongosolo la 14 la Zaka Zisanu" lachitukuko chazomera zamakampani ndi "14th Zaka Zisanu Zazaka" zopanga mafakitale azida zatulutsidwa posachedwa, pomwe ma dipatimenti oyenera akhazikitsa njira zopangira kaboni za osakhala akumwa zitsulo, zomangira, chitsulo ndi mafakitale ena ofunikira, ndikufotokozera zakuchepetsa kwa mpweya wa mafakitale Njira yokhazikitsira ntchito idzafotokozedweratu, ndikukula kwa mafakitale atsopano ndi mafakitale apamwamba adzafulumizitsidwa, ndipo kuchuluka kwa magetsi oyenera kudzawonjezeka . Madera amagwiritsidwanso ntchito molimbika kuti alime ndikukula mafakitale obiriwira, kupititsa patsogolo kugwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo wazatsopano pakupanga zobiriwira, ndikupanga malo angapo obiriwira ndi mafakitale obiriwira, ndi zina zambiri, kuti athandizire mpweya wobiriwira komanso wotsika kwambiri. -kukula bwino kwa mafakitale.
2, China idakweza mitengo yazitsulo yazinthu zogulitsa kunja, kuchotsera ndalama zotsitsa misonkho yotumiza kunja pazinthu zowonjezera mtengo
State Council Tariff Commission yalengeza kuti, pofuna kulimbikitsa kusinthika ndi kukweza makampani azitsulo ndi chitukuko chapamwamba, State Council Tariff Commission idaganiza zokweza misonkho yotumiza kunja kwa ferrochrome ndi chitsulo choyera kwambiri cha nkhumba kuyambira Ogasiti 1, 2021, atasintha misonkho yotumiza kunja kwa 40% ndi 20%, motsatana. Kuphatikiza apo, malinga ndi chilengezo choperekedwa ndi Unduna wa Zachuma ndi State Administration of taxation, kuyambira Ogasiti 1, 2021, China iyimitsanso kuchotsera msonkho pamitundu 23 yazinthu zachitsulo monga njanji zachitsulo. Uku ndikusintha kwachiwiri kwa misonkho yazitsulo zaku China kuyambira chaka chino, kusintha koyamba kwa misonkho mu Meyi, kusunga zopereka za misonkho yotumiza kunja yomwe ili ndi ma code 23 amisonkho pazinthu zazikuluzikulu zomwe zidawonjezedwa, nthawi ino zonse zidathetsedwa.
3, Januware-Juni mabizinesi amakampani apamwamba kuposa kukula kwa phindu adakwera 66.9% pachaka
Kuyambira Januware mpaka Juni, m'mafakitale akulu akulu 41, mafakitale 39 adakulitsa phindu lawo pachaka, makampani 1 adasandutsa phindu kukhala bizinesi, ndipo kampani imodzi idakhala yopanda pake. Makampani omwe amapindula nawo ndi awa: kusungunula kwazitsulo komanso kugulitsa ntchito pamakampani komwe phindu lonse limakulitsidwa ndi nthawi 2.73, makampani opanga mafuta ndi gasi awonjezeka ndi nthawi za 2.49, fodya wazitsulo wazitsulo komanso makina ogulitsira akukulira nthawi 2.34, zopangira zamankhwala ndi Kupanga zinthu zamagetsi kumawonjezeka ndi nthawi 1.77, migodi yamalasha komanso yotsuka idakwera ndi 1.14, makampani opanga magalimoto adakwera ndi 45.2%, makompyuta, kulumikizana ndi mafakitale ena opanga zida zamagetsi adakula ndi 45.2%, makina opanga magetsi ndi zida zopangira zida zidakula ndi 36.1 %, mafakitale opanga zida zambiri amakula ndi 34.5%, mafakitale opanga zida zapadera amakula ndi 31.0%, mafakitale osagwiritsa ntchito zachitsulo amakula ndi 26.7%, magetsi, kupanga kutentha ndi mafakitale ogulitsa adakula ndi 9.5%.
Ⅵ, msika wapadziko lonse lapansi
Mu Juni 2021, kupanga zitsulo zosakonzedwa padziko lonse lapansi m'maiko 64 zomwe zidaphatikizidwa ndi ziwerengero za World Steel Association zinali matani 167.9 miliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa 11.6%.
Makamaka, chitsulo chosakanizidwa cha China chinali matani 93.9 miliyoni, mpaka 1.5% pachaka; Kupanga kwazitsulo zakuda ku India kunali matani 9.4 miliyoni, mpaka 21.4% pachaka; Zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri ku Japan zinali matani miliyoni 8.1, mpaka 44.4% pachaka; chitsulo chosakongola cha ku US chinali matani 7.1 miliyoni, mpaka 44.4% pachaka; Kupanga kwazitsulo zakuda ku Russia kunali matani 6.4 miliyoni, mpaka 11.4% pachaka; Zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri ku South Korea zidali matani 6 miliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa 17.35%; Zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri ku Germany zopanga matani 3.4 miliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa 38.2%; Turkey yopanga zitsulo zopanda matani 3.4 miliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa 17.9%; Kupanga kwazitsulo zakuda ku Brazil matani 3.1 miliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa 45.2%; Chitsulo chosakonzeka ku Iran chikuyerekeza kutulutsa matani 2.5 miliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa 1.9%.
VII. Kuwona kwathunthu
Mu Julayi, zolimbikitsidwa ndi kukonza mdziko lonse, nkhani zoletsa pakupanga, mitengo yazitsulo zapanyumba idayambanso. Munthawiyo, nkhani zazikuluzabwino pafupipafupi, kukhazikitsa kwathunthu kutsitsa; malingaliro olosera, msika wamtsogolo udakwera kwambiri; pakuchepetsa kwa chiyembekezero, mphero zachitsulo nthawi zambiri zimakweza mtengo wakale wa fakitole. Mitengo yazitsulo idakwera munthawi yopanda nyengo, yokwera kuposa momwe amayembekezerera, makamaka chifukwa cha mfundo zakuchepa kwazitsulo zosakongola m'malo ambiri wina ndi mzake, mabizinesi ena achitsulo adayamba kuchepetsa kupanga, ndikupanikizika kuti achepetse pambuyo pamisika yayikulu kukankhira yoweyula. Komabe, mitengo ikapitilizabe kukwera, kufunikira kolimba kwa ntchito kumakhala kofooka, kutentha ndi nyengo yamvula, ntchito zomangamanga zalephereka, kuchuluka kwa zomwe zidachitika kudatsika kwambiri poyerekeza ndi mwezi watha. Kugulitsa ndi kufunikira kumafooka panjira zonse ziwiri, ndipo kuweruza kwathu mwezi watha kuli chimodzimodzi, koma mgwirizano wamagetsi unakulitsidwa kwambiri ndi msika wamakampani, kukulitsa mavuto pamsika. Ponseponse, mu Julayi, kukwezaku kumayembekezeredwa, ndipo udindo wazachuma udawonetsedwa bwino. Pambuyo polowa mu Ogasiti, njira yazoperekera ndi kufunikira kosinthasintha isintha: pambali yogulitsa, chifukwa chantchito yolemetsa yopanga, madera ena apitiliza kukulitsa kuchuluka kwa zoletsa pakupanga, kupanga kumakhala kovuta kubweza; kumbali yakufunira, mpumulo wa nyengo yoipitsitsa, zomwe zikuchedwetsedwa zikuyembekezeredwa kuchira. Chifukwa chake, tikulosera kuti mu Ogasiti zomangamanga ndizopangira zida zakapangidwe zidzakonzedweratu, mitengo yazitsulo ndi malo osakwanira. Komabe, pakuwonjezereka kwa zoletsa kupanga, miyala yachitsulo yaposachedwa, zidutswa ndi zina mitengo yazida zagwera pamlingo wina, mphero zachitsulo mtengo wa mphamvu yokoka ukuyembekezeka kutsika, kukulitsa phindu pambuyo mphamvu zoletsa kupanga kapena zofooketsa (ng'anjo yamagetsi yamagetsi siyimayikidwa pakupanga koyang'anira). Kuphatikiza apo, kusintha kwa mfundo zina pamisonkho kumachepetsa kuchuluka kwa zogulitsa zakunja ku China, kuchuluka kwa malamulo ogulitsa nyumba, kumakhudza kuthamanga kwa kutsika kwa zotuluka.
Zikuyembekezeka kuti mtengo wapamwamba kwambiri ku Shanghai mu Ogasiti ukhala pakati pa 5,500-5,800 yuan / ton.
Post nthawi: Aug-01-2021